FSU vs. USF Gut Prediction

It’s time for my weekly Gut Prediction on the Noles game. Remember, stats are for nerds and guts are for men. Real men. Predictions like this can only come from the subcockle region. Just ask Denis Leary. Gut prediction guys don’t drink microbrews, like coffee flavored coffee and don’t like croissants.  Gut reactions involve stopping by La Fiesta last night for dinner, to get the proper balance of nutrients and killer transfats in order to make a prediction on a Friday morning. So let’s get to it and highlight the major points.

Cheerleaders

FSU remains undefeated in this category, until such time that we play Texas or USC at which point we’ll have a game on our hands and go more in depth. Moving on to the football game.

Gut reaction prediction from preseason?

The Bulls present one of those no good for the Noles situations. USF has nothing to lose and everything to gain by beating FSU at Doak Campbell Stadium. Here’s the thing, I have an odd feeling that this one isn’t close, and lot of Green and Gold is going home to Tampa sorely disappointed. FSU 38, USF 20.

Yeah, that’s right. That prediction was BEFORE THE GROTHE injury. It’s an easy one to stick to this week even with B.J. Daniels at the helm for the Bulls.

About USF

• They haven’t played anybody.
• They have a crap rushing defense against a bunch of crap teams.
• They have one of the best pass defenses in the country, against nobody.
• The original starting kicker Maikon Bonani (you gotta love that name… BONANI)fell off a ride a Busch Gardens over the summer, hurting his back and leaving the kicking duties to two less than stellar options.
  
• They wear green and gold, like they some sort of hybrid FSU / Miami wannabes.
• They’re bringing 12,000 of their fans with them and they’re all going to Po Boys or something.

USF would love nothing more than to roll into Tallahassee with a former Lincoln High School star QB and beat the Noles. It would solidify the Bulls’ position as a top team in Florida. Until they beat Miami, FSU or UF (right, like UF would ever schedule them over a South Carolina School For The Blind) they’ll be viewed as the underdogs and the kids that get no respect. They’ve won a lot of games over the last few years, and were ranked in the Top 5 more recently than FSU. Their defense got them there, and on Saturday it will have to be stellar for a USF win.

About the Noles
Some food for thought:

• Christian Ponder is obviously banged up. I could assign a random percentage here about how healthy he is (the Democrat says 99%, Tomahawk Nation think more like 70%) but I won’t. We’ll leave it at he’s a bit banged up.
• Dustin Hopkins hasn’t fixed his mechanical issues yet. He needs to make all of the gimmies, immediately.
• The FSU secondary was improved last week, despite was the stats said. If the trend of improvement continues it will show up in the statistics soon.
• Ty Jones (or another FSU running back, take your pick) should have a good day against USF.

How can the Noles win?

• Pound the ball. You’re going to hear this from me a lot this season. The FSU Rushing Attack is the key to the season. If the Noles can run the ball consistently all game against USF, then the Noles will win.
• Win the TOP Battle. What did I see last week? Clock-killing sustained drives by FSU. A repeat of that keeps USF off of the field and tired out the Bulls defense. +9 minutes wins the game (ie, look for the Noles to have 34:30 or more in time of possession).
• 1 Big Play From Special Teams. Greg Reid or somebody else needs to run back a punt or a kickoff for a TD this weekend to put the Noles over the top. Or maybe a fake Field Goal? Something along that lines will put the dagger in USF’s heart.

Prediction

USF has everything to gain in this match up. The Noles have nothing to gain. A win is expected, a loss throws the season back into a bit of turmoil and doubt. It’s a trap game for FSU, but I have to believe that the Noles are focused on the task at hand and will get the job done on Saturday. I’m confident in a Seminoles victory tomorrow, and I’ll stick with the preseason score prediction (with some help from the ABOUT TO FAIL BULL).

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